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Home » Politics » Download Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China

Download Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China

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Politics
Friday, October 11, 2013

Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China

Author: Visit Amazon's Stephen Roach Page | Language: English | ISBN: 0300187173 | Format: PDF

Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China Description

Review

"Stephen Roach combines scholarly expertise and long practical experience in this thought-provoking critique of economic policy.  His insights and arguments will influence the debate on both sides of the Pacific."—Henry A. Kissinger
(Henry Kissinger)

"An important and fascinating book about the structural changes and evolving codependency of the world’s two largest and most dynamic economies.  Unbalancedis an education in growth, stability and postwar globalization, full of deep insights and colorful personalities on both sides, and wonderfully well written.  Very few people have the breadth of knowledge and experience to write such a book."—A. Michael Spence, Nobel Laureate in Economics
(A. Michael Spence)

"How the US and China will transit from precarious codependency to stable coexistence is one of the most crucial questions for the 21st century. Stephen Roach, with his profound grasp of the economic and political systems in the US and China, describes the challenges, opportunities and necessary adjustments for both countries. This is a timely must-read book for anyone concerned about the future of the world."—Justin Yifu Lin, Former Chief Economist, the World Bank
(Justin Yifu Lin)

"Unbalanced is a compelling analysis of China's transition to a new model of economic growth and the challenges this transition will create for the United States."—Nicholas Lardy, Anthony M. Solomon Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics
(Nicholas Lardy)

"Stephen Roach provides an insightful and critical account of the economic relationship between China and America.  His policy warning is clear: the future of US-China relations depends on significant changes in the growth strategies of both countries."—Laura D. Tyson, University of California, Berkeley
(Laura Tyson)

“[An] eye-opening look at a condition that wanders from the boardroom to the psychiatrist’s couch: financial codependency, which enables the worst qualities of two powerful economies. . . .Full of implication, well written and of much interest.”—Kirkus Reviews
(Kirkus Reviews)

"Lucid and accessible, immensely informative and insightful . . . . one of the most important books on the relationship between the United States and China to be published in at least a decade."—Huffington Post
(Huffington Post)

"An evenhanded, thorough response to the anti-China potshots from Democrats and Republicans alike. . . . The root problem, Roach says repeatedly, is America’s inability to save enough at home to finance its growth — a situation that is hardly China’s fault. And a day of reckoning is coming [for the United States and China]. . . . ‘The endgame provides enormous opportunity for each, ‘he writes. ‘The challenge is for both to see it.’ "—Fred Andrews, New York Times
(Fred Andrews New York Times)

About the Author

Stephen Roach is senior fellow, Jackson Institute for Global Affairs and School of Management, Yale University. Prior to that he was Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, and for the bulk of his career on Wall Street was Chief Economist of Morgan Stanley. Prior to joining Morgan Stanley in 1982, Mr. Roach served on the research staff of the Federal Reserve Board and was also a research fellow at the Brookings Institution. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from New York University. Roach has written extensively for the international media and appears regularly on television around the world. He lives in New Canaan, CT.

 
  • Product Details
  • Table of Contents
  • Reviews
  • Hardcover: 344 pages
  • Publisher: Yale University Press (January 28, 2014)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0300187173
  • ISBN-13: 978-0300187175
  • Product Dimensions: 9.5 x 6.6 x 1.2 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 1.4 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
For decades the U.S. and China relied on a 'marriage of convenience' that guaranteed China a huge market for exports, while American consumers received a cornucopia of inexpensive products and a buyer of its debt. Roach basically contends that it's time for the two nations to switch identities - more savings and less consumption in the U.S., less savings and more consumptionin China.

The new China is here, yet we're fixated on the old China. China is now moving to a more balanced consumer-led growth model via services-led job growth (China's services sector overtook the combined shares of manufacturing and construction as the economy's largest segment in 2013), urbanization-driven income leveraging, and a stronger social-safety net. Services generate about 30% more jobs/output unit than do manufacturing and construction, allowing China to meet its labor absorption and social stability goals with economic growth of only 7-8%.

China now has the smallest services sector of any major economy, and Roach sees it possibly increasing by about $12 trillion by 2015, providing an opportunity for the U.S. Roach suggests pursuing that opportunity rather than continued Chinese currency bashing - reality is we had deficits with 102 nations in 2012 which Roach contends is the result of a U.S. savings gap. Besides, the renminbi has risen 35% since 7/2005 and its current account surplus is less than 3% of GDP. Roach would also like to see cyberattack issues raised to high-priority status.

As for rebalancing - China needs to save less and consume more, and the U.S. the opposite. Phasing out the one-child policy and reforming the residential permit system (hukou) are early steps; another is earmarking 30% of China's SOE profits for funding its safety net programs.

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